Wow! Great discussion! I recently read "Lukewarming" by Patrick Michaels that addresses the models being used to predict GW . Heavy on statistics , but it illustrates that whenever possible, the highest values are used to predict a planet on fire. It is warming, as it has for billions of years, but not at the rate we are told.
Al, I'd much rather be discussing Speedsters and the comparative merits of fiberglass and steel, but I just can't let this pass.
Michaels would say things like that because, well, he's sort of being paid to.
Here's just a bit of his background from his Wikipedia page (emphasis mine)
"...The World Climate Report, a newsletter edited by Michaels was first published by the Greening Earth Society, a public relations organization. Greening Earth Society was funded and controlled by the Western Fuels Association, an association of coal-burning utility companies. Greening Earth Society shared an office and many staff members with Western Fuels Association. It has been called a "front group created by the coal industry ..."
These days, Michaels seems to be working mainly for the Cato Institute, a 'think-tank' that while claiming political neutrality, probably has a very definite political axe to grind - it was founded by three prominent libertarians, including Charles Koch (chairman and CEO of Koch Industries), whose political leanings are seldom described as 'neutral'.
So, while Michaels likes attacking scientific researchers for being guilty of political bias and for publishing results slanted to please the sources of their funding, that seems to be exactly what his own game is.
The international scientific community countered the earliest evidence of human-caused climate change with a healthy degree of skepticism, beginning many years ago. Healthy skepticism, after all, is sort of the most important principle of science.
But the evidence has been surviving those skeptical challenges of impartial scientific examination and is only growing as more research is done. It's a very large and complex problem. Making precise predictions about just what will happen and where and when is almost impossible. But that lack of precision doesn't mean there is no problem.
Parallels to the tobacco industry's denial of a link between smoking and cancer are pretty hard to ignore. A very wealthy industry found its profits threatened by a bunch of 'nutball' scientists who couldn't at first prove the link beyond a doubt. First evidence was statistical, not clinical. It took many years for the cause to produce a result, and more years for the research to prove that.
The industry fought back hard to discredit the messengers who were bringing the bad news. They hired their own 'scientists' and commissioned their own 'studies'. They had a lot to lose and weren't giving up easy.
But the writing was on the wall and you didn't need glasses to read it.