Originally Posted by Caretech-IM:
When you look at some technologies you really have to swallow the coolaid to drive it or adopt it. At least you get to choose your illusion or delusion and that is the most important factor.
We live in an age where people create their own reality.
The "inconvenient truth" is that a Tesla will not go 200 miles on a 40 minute charge in real-world situations. It might go a legitimate 200 miles in the real world if it had 2x the battery array, but then it would need 2x as long to charge. All the research has been in batteries, and we still haven't arrived at an "ah ha" moment. I don't think we will, because the nature of batteries is not consistent with the requirements of an over-the-road vehicle.
Regardless, we're nearing the leafy end of the lithium-ion branch of the energy evolution tree anyhow. There's not a lot left to squeeze out of it. Even if we want to believe the hype, nobody is stubbing their toes on rare earth minerals and lithium, and China is working hard to corner the market.
There are places that batteries make sense. In my LED flashlight, my cellphone, perhaps even a weed-whip: these are logical and sensible uses for electric energy that takes a long time to store and where a lot of stand-by time and short bursts of power are needed. A car is not like that.
The variable speed nature of a car is also part of the riddle. Turbines run best at a constant speed, which makes them a great solution for aircraft and a horrible solution for direct-drive applications in road-going vehicles. A 4-cycle IC engine runs best at a certain RPM as well, but engineers have worked out a lot of crafty solutions to make them work more efficiently across a wide band of RPM and throttle positions (VVT, variable intake runner length, cam-phasing, etc.). A DC electric motor is a thing of beauty in this regard: infinitely variable, 100% of it's torque available at 0 RPM, and very easy to cool. These things make a DC motor a compelling locomotion source for a vehicle.
As I keep saying, it's the way we are trying to power electric motors that stinks. A battery makes great sense to power accessories if the car is not in motion, but as a primary energy storage device it is awful. Using a battery or capacitor as a short-term storage device, the solution auto-engineer Tom was proposing allows us to charge the battery with something burning a fuel that IS operating in it's non-variable speed sweet-spot. The reason a turbine is so compelling is that if it were only used to charge a battery (or better yet: slow discharge capacitor) array, it could be made to run at maximum efficiency anytime it was on. When it wasn't need to charge the battery (or capacitor) it'd be free-wheeling or shut off. There are engineering hurdles to overcome, but almost nobody is even running in this race. Regardless, a fuel/electric propulsion system would be really cool, and would be innovative if diesel/electric locomotives hadn't been doing the same thing for about 80 years.
Allan is also right- steam is another variable speed wonder: more pressure equals more speed. A burner can be kept in a very efficient state throttled back to almost nothing. A burner is tiny and has about 1/1000th as many moving parts as an IC engine, and about 1/10,000 as much need for electronics as a hybrid. The steam engine is nearly 100% efficient as well. As odd as it sounds- steam may be the ultimate solution to getting big, fast vehicles over 100 mpg.
All this stuff skirts around what is supposedly the central point: efficiency. People like to point out that an IC engine is only about 20% efficient in converting potential energy in fuel to propulsion, but that a battery/electric car is about 60% efficient in converting electricity from the grid into propulsion. What's not to like? Well... how about the fact that a natural gas power generation plant is about 33-40% efficient, and that about 6% of that power is lost in the grid. That makes a plain-Jane IC engine look a WHOLE lot more competitive than an electric car charged off a gas-fired power-plant.
Another bit of Kool-Aid I'm supposed to drink is that a renewable energy grid is right around the corner. After decades of pushing it, and billions in incentives (I live in the Saudia Arabia of wind generation in the US), renewables constitute about 10-13% of the electricity generated in this country, and that includes biomass (methane) generation from landfill waste and hydro-electric. If you are only counting on the current darlings (wind and solar) it's only about 18% of that 13%. Coal is 39% of the power in the grid. Natural gas provides 25-35% of the electric in the grid, and fracking (for good or bad) has made gas almost free. Power made from burning stuff is available instantly 365 days a year. Even if it's dark outside or rainy. That's why I keep buying energy stocks, even though I've been creamed on them this year. We really have no other choice unless we are willing to go nuclear in a bigger way. We're not.
If we could keep the existing energy infrastructure and yet have vehicles that got 100+ mpg, the entire problem (CO2, energy scarcity, etc.) would take care of itself. The electrical grid could be dedicated to powering industry and homes, rather than trying to power hundreds of millions of cars. We could give up on pipe-dream generation solutions like wind and solar, and turn subsidies to better use (like making nuclear safer).
I love the old otto-cycle 4-stroke IC engine precisely because they have adapted and shifted to be so amazingly much better than they have a right to be. But I know that there are some better solutions out there.
Elon Musk's billions aside, I'll bet the farm that batteries are not what we are looking for. The emperor isn't wearing any clothes.